Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
